The score is 56-49*, and you're dealt A-A-4-6-6-K. What do you keep?

Ask the experts lets you match your cribbage wits against some of the game's leading players and writers. Set up your board and cards, and decide what you would do in the above situation. Then check back next month to compare your results with those of our all-star panel.

March 2008 problem:

The score is 114-112*, so you need seven to go out. You're dealt 2 4 9 K K K. What do you keep?

Dan Barlow:

The question is, what card do I save with the Ks? Whether the 2, 4, or 9, there are seven cards in the deck that will improve my hand to eight points. So which card will help me peg, in case I need to? I'm going with the 9. I'll get a go if dealer has all low cards or all high and/or middle cards. She might even play a 9 on my opening lead of a K, while she's unlikely to play a low card if she can avoid it.

John Chambers:

If I'm in this position, I would keep the 9 K K K. If your opponent is holding mostly low cards and you have all high cards, he will have to play a couple in succession to get a go or 31. This means you will get the one hole you need. If your opponent has mostly high cards, you will also get the one hole you need. Remember you only need to peg one hole, and don't need to think about the potential of your hand.

DeLynn Colvert:

Keep 2-K-K-K. Lead a K, then play the 2. Try for a go with the two remaining Ks.

George Rasmussen:

I will retain 9-K-K-K and discard 2-4. It seems that would be more likely to score one peg if the starter card is no help in retaining the three largest cards.

I would lead the K since it matches the suit of the 9. I am really hoping that dealer will score 15 or make the count slightly over 15, at which point I will play the 9 for a reasonably low count. Given that scenario, dealer will drop two cards once I declare go. That assures me of the one peg to win. Also, if dealer has a 9, that card will often be played on the lead of a K or Q, and would allow me to pair the 9 for a count of 28, and gain the pegs necessary for win.

Michael Schell:

Keep 2, 4 or 9? Each has the same number of winning cuts, so the deciding factor is which hand is most likely to peg a single point on a losing cut. My money is on jettisoning the low cards. This gives me two likely paths to victory:

• Making the count high enough for a go on the first or second play series:

  ^K  ₆  ⁹  _5 (31-2)    ^K  ₄  ^K (24-1)    _Q (10-1)

• Trapping dealer into dumping a low card on an early go, allowing me to steal last card:

  ^K  ₆  ⁹  _{4  2 (31-2)}    ^K  ₃  ^K (23-1)

There's also a slight chance of picking up a 9 reply to my opening lead. The lesson here is that when you need only one go or last card to win as pone in the endgame, the "back door" tactic of stealing last card is often your best plan.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'm keeping 4-K-K-K. The plan is to lead the 4 and hope to save the 2 Ks at the end for at least a go.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 9-K-K-K and lead the 9 to try and get that all important go (with or without the cut).

HALSCRIB:

Keeping the three Ks is obvious, so the question is: which additional card do we keep? We need only one more point after the cut, so it seems it won't matter which — the 2, 4 and 9 all have the same number of favorable starters (seven). However, if we do not improve, then pegging will be the deciding factor, and this makes the 9 the best companion by a comfortable margin. Here are some numbers. Opponent's pegging is thrown in for good measure, although it's pretty irrelevant:

Keep	Toss		Pegging			Win %
			Net	(pone/dealer)
2-K-K-K	4-9		+2.22	(0.87/3.09)		72.3
4-K-K-K	2-9		+2.15	(0.89/3.04)		70.4
9-K-K-K	2-4		+1.96	(1.02/2.98)		76.5

The (human) conventional wisdom is correct in cases like this where all you need is a single peg as pone (and dealer is far enough back that you can afford to give up a couple pegs on the way). Rid yourself of low and medium rank cards, and hope to trap dealer with a few of the same, and you'll likely get what you need.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written six books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

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