Schell's discard tables

These are the static discard tables I use in my own play and analysis. When I prepare for serious competition, I memorize these values rounded to one decimal point. Then I use them in conjunction with the addition method and other techniques to help guide me through difficult discarding decisions over the board.

My figures are based on the discard tables compiled by Hessel, Rasmussen and Bowman (the latter being reprinted by Colvert in his book Play Winning Cribbage). The Hessel and Bowman numbers (which are computer-generated) are averaged together at par, while the Rasmussen numbers (which are sampled from actual human play) are averaged in as a square root of the number of samples, which is different for each discard combination.

Discarding to your crib (Schell)

  A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
A 5.38 4.23 4.52 5.43 5.45 3.85 3.85 3.80 3.40 3.42 3.65 3.42 3.41
2 4.23 5.72 7.00 4.52 5.45 3.93 3.81 3.66 3.71 3.55 3.84 3.58 3.52
3 4.52 7.00 5.94 4.91 5.97 3.81 3.58 3.92 3.78 3.57 3.90 3.59 3.67
4 5.43 4.52 4.91 5.63 6.48 3.85 3.72 3.83 3.72 3.59 3.88 3.59 3.60
5 5.45 5.45 5.97 6.48 8.79 6.63 6.01 5.48 5.43 6.66 7.00 6.63 6.66
6 3.85 3.93 3.81 3.85 6.63 5.76 4.98 4.63 5.13 3.17 3.41 3.23 3.13
7 3.85 3.81 3.58 3.72 6.01 4.98 5.92 6.53 4.04 3.23 3.53 3.23 3.26
8 3.80 3.66 3.92 3.83 5.48 4.63 6.53 5.45 4.72 3.80 3.52 3.19 3.16
9 3.40 3.71 3.78 3.72 5.43 5.13 4.04 4.72 5.16 4.29 3.97 2.99 3.06
10 3.42 3.55 3.57 3.59 6.66 3.17 3.23 3.80 4.29 4.76 4.61 3.31 2.84
J 3.65 3.84 3.90 3.88 7.00 3.41 3.53 3.52 3.97 4.61 5.33 4.81 3.96
Q 3.42 3.58 3.59 3.59 6.63 3.23 3.23 3.19 2.99 3.31 4.81 4.79 3.46
K 3.41 3.52 3.67 3.60 6.66 3.13 3.26 3.16 3.06 2.84 3.96 3.46 4.58

Discarding to opponent's crib (Schell)

  A 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K
A 6.02 5.07 5.07 5.72 6.01 4.91 4.89 4.85 4.55 4.48 4.68 4.33 4.30
2 5.07 6.38 7.33 5.33 6.11 4.97 4.97 4.94 4.70 4.59 4.81 4.56 4.45
3 5.07 7.33 6.68 5.96 6.78 4.87 5.01 5.05 4.87 4.63 4.86 4.59 4.48
4 5.72 5.33 5.96 6.53 7.26 5.34 4.88 4.94 4.68 4.53 4.85 4.46 4.36
5 6.01 6.11 6.78 7.26 9.37 7.47 7.00 6.30 6.15 7.41 7.76 7.34 7.25
6 4.91 4.97 4.87 5.34 7.47 7.08 6.42 5.86 6.26 4.31 4.57 4.22 4.14
7 4.89 4.97 5.01 4.88 7.00 6.42 7.14 7.63 5.26 4.31 4.68 4.32 4.27
8 4.85 4.94 5.05 4.94 6.30 5.86 7.63 6.82 5.83 5.10 4.59 4.31 4.20
9 4.55 4.70 4.87 4.68 6.15 6.26 5.26 5.83 6.39 5.43 4.96 4.11 4.03
10 4.48 4.59 4.63 4.53 7.41 4.31 4.31 5.10 5.43 6.08 5.63 4.61 3.88
J 4.68 4.81 4.86 4.85 7.76 4.57 4.68 4.59 4.96 5.63 6.42 5.46 4.77
Q 4.33 4.56 4.59 4.46 7.34 4.22 4.32 4.31 4.11 4.61 5.46 5.79 4.49
K 4.30 4.45 4.48 4.36 7.25 4.14 4.27 4.20 4.03 3.88 4.77 4.49 5.65

These tables are a distillation of three sets of original figures, each of which was generated with a different methodology. I think they quite accurately reflect current cribbage praxis, and they have served me well in expert-level play.

For more information on how to use and interpret these tables, see the articles Discarding to your crib and Discarding to opponent's crib.

- February 2002


 
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