Ask the experts, August 2001

You're pone at 117-107*. You're dealt 2-4-7-10-K-K. What do you keep? And what do you plan to lead if the cut leaves you short?

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Dan Barlow:

2-7-K-K and 2-4-K-K give equal chances of getting the extra two points. Keeping the 4 is best if the cut is an A, 4, or 9. Keeping the 7 is best if the cut is a 6, 7 or 8. I slightly favor keeping 2-7-K-K, and leading the 2. Dealer, fearing I have a 3, might play a 6 or a 7, giving me the two points I need. If I lead low from 2-4-K-K, I have to hope he plays a 9, as he's unlikely to play the low card I can pair. By hanging onto my Ks, I'm hoping the play proceeds:

2  8   6 (23-3) 6 (29-2) A (30-1)    K  K (20-3)

Note that I would not have been able to play my Ks consecutively if I'd held 2-4-K-K, as the count stays too low for me to say Go.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would hold 2-4-K-K, lead a K. Hope for an A, 2, 3 or 4 reply (fourteen outstanding). Second choice would be to lead a 4, hope for a 9 response. (K? Slight chance.) Fourteen A-2-3-4s vs. six 9-Ks.

George Rasmussen:

Would retain the 2-4-K-K, as the cut of A-A-A-A, 2-2-2, 3-3-3-3, 4-4-4, 5-5-5-5, 9-9-9-9 or K-K would give sufficient points to count out without benefit of pegging. Assuming the availability of these cards, there are 24 cards which would allow a score of four points or more.

Incidentally, the next best possibility is to retain the 2-7-K-K. In that case, you score four points on the cut of 2-2-2, 3-3-3-3, 5-5-5-5, 6-6-6-6, 7-7-7, 8-8-8-8 and K-K. That's also a total of 24 cards which would allow the score of four points with no regard for pegging potential as non-dealer.

The 2-4-K-K is more likely to peg if no points gained on cut of starter card. Lead the 4. Dealer will not pair opening lead in this case. If dealer has a 9, this is preferred play on a 4 lead. The 2 scores 15-2. Believe it important to retain Ks in the event that you do not score the 15-2. If dealer retains a variety of cards with small to medium ranks, your Ks may be scored on end of play as a pair. There is a slight chance that dealer would retain a K to end as well figuring that the K was the least likely card the non-dealer would hold.

The 2-7-K-K does not offer as good a lead and much less chance of scoring a fifteen on your second card played. In the event that these cards were retained and no 15-2 or pair were scored, it's very important to retain the Ks in hopes of closing the count with that pair.

Michael Schell:

Hmmm, I remember this hand. Rosemary Hendricks dealt it to me in the final game of our quarterfinal match at the 2001 Montana Open Championship. There are two legitimate holds: 2-4-K-K or 2-7-K-K. Either one wins on 24 cuts. If I miss with 2-4-K-K, I can lead the 4, hoping to get a 9 or K reply, or to score a 31-2 against 5-x-x-x with my 2-4-K, or even to run the K-K at the end for three points. Holding 2-7-K-K, if I flunk the cut, I can lead the 2 hoping for a 6 or 7 reply or, again, to run the K-K at the end for three.

In the game, I kept 2-4-K-K, figuring that the 7-10 toss maximized my chances of surviving the deal even if I didn't go out. Unfortunately, I cut a 7 and pegged just one point against Rosemary's 2-3-4-6:

 4 (8-2)  K  6!  2  2 (28-2)  3 (31-2)    K (30-1)

She'd tossed a couple ten-cards, so the paired 7 in her crib put her out. Ouch.

Afterwards, I spent some time with this hand, playing it out from this position several dozen times against randomly-dealt dealer hands. In each playout I assumed that I'd flunked the cut. 2-4-K-K won 60% of these playouts (leading the 4 and leading a K performed equally well), while 2-7-K-K won only 41%. Although keeping 2-7-K-K would have beaten Rosemary, I think the better plan is to hold 2-4-K-K, leading either the 4 or a K on a flunk.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would discard the 2 and 10, keeping 4-7-K-K. Lead the 4, save the two Ks hoping to get the last two cards.

Peter Setian:

I would keep 2-4-K-K and lead a K, hoping that the dealer kept high/low cards or may make a 15 for two, where I'd play the 4 for 19, trying to corner a run, or get the 31 for the two needed points. If the dealer kept middle cards, I may just get a go or nothing, but also blank the crib with the 7-10 throw, therefore possibly having enough "room" to deal for the automatic go or pair if needed, etc.

HALSCRIB:

My approach is a little different. If I don't win with the cut, I want to maximize my chances of surviving until the next deal, in which case I'll be a favorite to peg out. Of all the candidate hands that keep two points, 2-4-K-K lets me make the safest toss: 7-K. So that's my call. If I flunk the cut, I'll lead a K from 2-4-K-K. Again, I'm thinking safety first. If dealer scores with a K, I'll win immediately, and if dealer scores with a 5, I'll play my 2 next, with a good chance of getting a 31-2 with my 4. If I led a low card instead, I'd have no way of retaliating if dealer scores on it.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over three decades, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about 12-16 tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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