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Dan Barlow:

I'll go with the 15-2. Play the J, and you can lose immediately if dealer has a 2 and a 3. You're also on thin ice if he has a 7. Playing the A, you are mainly concerned that dealer has an A. But even if he does have an A, playing the J wouldn't necessarily have been better — it could go:

⁴  _J  ^J (24-2)  ₅  ^A  _A (31-4)

and you lose anyway.

DeLynn Colvert:

Hey, this is an easy one. First off, I would lead the A. For years I led the 4 to force the A, 2, 3, 5 and 6 off the play and collect my 15-2. But recently I have experimented by leading the A and, voila, I find that players make an extra effort to play to 11, and I collect even more 15-2s!

But back to the quiz: I always take the 15-2 with the A, as I do not want to get trapped with a lonesome A with the count above 21. In this case, you may get your 10-J trapped later, but getting trapped with the A is a greater risk.

George Rasmussen:

In this case, with dealer only three points from a win, dump the A for 15-2. Dealer may have some small cards (A-2, A-3, etc.) and could not play on your 4 lead. There is greater danger in holding the A to the end of play than dumping it now to score fifteen. If dealer has an A, you'll likely give up the three points your opponent needs anyway, whereas if dealer has other small cards you avoid the possibility of a three-card run at the end of play by dropping your A. The count is low enough at 15 that dealer may have to play all cards for a go only. If dealer plays a 7 or bigger on your score of 15, you must say go. Your two ten-point cards are not likely to harm you in any way here and will give you the pegging advantage if it was necessary for dealer to hold a group of ten-pointers. Even so, holding ten-point cards is very unlikely with dealer being three points out.

So play it as safe as possible, since you count first and have enough points to win.

Michael Schell:

Either play has three immediate losers. Playing low with the A carries no particular risk aside from dealer pairing my A (she'll win either way with two cards totaling six). Playing high violates the general defensive principle of keeping the count in the 15-20 range, and it loses to 2-3 (in addition to a 7). But it protects you if dealer has 5-6-x remaining, or 2-2 with a 6, 8, 9 or x, and it wins immediately if you manage to trap an A or 6 (though there are only two of the latter available). Ordinarily I'd drop the A on general principle, and objectively this is probably the best play. But if my opponent is a strong tournament player, I'd have to wonder why — holding a 7 with another 7 showing as starter — she played a J on my 4 lead if she didn't also have an A. Also, the A is slightly more likely to have been kept by dealer than the 7 in this position, other things being equal. These factors, coupled with the particular tactical situation that somewhat mitigates the risk of playing high, might lead me to pair the J.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I'd play the A for 15, hoping the next card my opponent plays would be high enough so that I couldn't play. I would then get to play my 10-J in sequence and might possibly get a run out of his one card. Meanwhile I get rid of my A early so as not to get trapped.

Peter Setian:

I would definitely take the 15-2. If the dealer has an A, he or she will eventually pair you and win anyways...unless the dealer has something like 6-6-A left and would reluctantly have to make the count 30 over 24 — but that's pretty specific. Making the count 15 is less likely to give pegging trouble (especially against 2-3). This way you also allow the dealer to safely make the count 31 on their own into the "dead" hole because he or she would likely have to use two cards, which negates the go on the end.

HALSCRIB:

In Fourth Street pegging situations I calculate my overall losing chances (Lose %) and my chances of winning specifically by pegging out (Win %). If I expect the current deal will be the game's last, I'll always make the play with the lowest Lose % value. In this case it's the A:

My Play
		Lose %	Win %
A		42.0	16.4
10		73.8	0.3
J		65.9	8.1

Dealer's play of the J may suggest she has an A, but I won't be bluffed since if she does have an A, I'll probably lose no matter what I do. If she pairs my A, I would then dump the J and play her for a pair of 10s, giving me a slight chance of winning, one that isn't going to be available if I pair her J and subsequently get my A trapped high. Thus I'll take the 15-2 and hope she has no A. This keeps me from losing to a 2-3 combo or to a 7, and it leaves me with one or two relatively safe ten-cards for the second play series.

Incidentally, at the start of the play I'm a three-to-one underdog in this position! I have no covered lead, and dealer needs just three pegs to win. I agree with leading the 4 in that it adds some pegging-out chances, though there's not much difference between the candidates:

My Lead
		Lose %	Win %
A		77.4	0.3
4		75.6	2.8
10		78.1	0.1
J		77.0	0.1

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.