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Dan Barlow:

5-6-6-7 is at least four points better than 2-6-6-7 on most cuts, so the question becomes: is 5-5 four points better than 2-5 in the crib? My guess is that it is about that much better. The deciding factor for me is that the worst cuts if I save 2-6-6-7 (4, 10, J, Q, K) are all cuts that could give me a huge crib if I've tossed both 5s. This is a close call, as it was in its previous incarnation. One difference is that 5-6-7-7 improves on any cut, while 5-6-6-7 doesn't improve on an A cut. That's enough to sway me to tossing the 5s, and hoping for the psychological edge that comes with flipping over a sixteen point crib.

DeLynn Colvert:

I would still discard the two 5s to my own crib. A average crib of almost nine points is worth the the loss in hand value.

George Rasmussen:

I remember this well as I offered considerable analysis on the 2-5-5-6-7-7 hand in August 2002. From that hand, I showed the rationale for the 2-5 discard, and that choice was borne out by 100 simulated deals that I subsequently tabulated with that hand. Although the current hand looks similar (you have a second 6 instead of a second 7), there is a considerable difference: with 2-5-5-6-6-7, the discard choice should be 5-5. The combined value of hand and crib will be considerably larger. Part of the increase results in the cut of the 3 or 9 as starter. These two cards add an additional two points of value to 2-6-6-7.

Small differences such as those influence the combined value of crib/hand quite significantly over time. In 100 simulations of 2-6-6-7 with 5-5 discarded to dealer's crib, the combined average value of hand and crib totaled 18.46 points. Total hand points were 908 (9.08 avg.) and total crib points were 938 (9.38 avg.). Conversely, when keeping 5-6-6-7 and discarding 2-5, the combined average value of hand and crib totaled 17.2 points. Total hand points were 1,194 (11.94 avg.) and total crib points were 526 (5.26 avg.). Note that the 5-5 discard averages 8.821 to your own crib.

Michael Schell:

2-6-6-7 gets about a ¼ point higher expected average than 5-6-6-7. That's a slightly wider spread than the difference between 2-6-7-7 and 5-6-7-7. But as I've noted before, hands with a 5 or a magic eleven in them typically peg about ½ point better than hands that don't. In this case, the bots say the pegging edge is over a point, though this may be exaggerated. Nevertheless, the pegging potential of 5-6-6-7 clearly trumps the scoring potential of 2-6-6-7.

Keep  Toss    Average   hand Own crib:    Expected    average   Static    Delta   Dynamic  2-6-6-7     5-5 8.70 8.79 -0.14 8.65 17.35 5-5-6-7 2-6 12.17 3.93 -0.38 3.55 15.72 5-6-6-7 2-5 11.70 5.45 -0.07 5.38 17.08

Keep  Toss      Pegging (Schempp):     Pegging (Mueller): Net (pone/dealer) Net (pone/dealer) 2-6-6-7     5-5 +2.0 (1.7/3.7) +1.4 (1.5/2.9) 5-5-6-7 2-6 +3.2 (2.3/5.6) +2.7  (1.3/4.0) 5-6-6-7 2-5 +2.5 (1.8/4.4) +2.2 (1.5/3.7)

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would do the same thing as before. Discard 5-5. This gives you the best chance all around.

Peter Setian:

I would still discard 5-5 into my own crib for the best potential of combined hand and crib value. The slightly different distribution has little or no effect on the potential of the hand from before.

HALSCRIB:

2-6-6-7 scores more between hand and crib than 5-6-6-7, but with no 5 to capitalize on a ten-card lead, your offensive pegging will suffer considerably. For that reason, 2-6-6-7 is only worth keeping if you're playing off. Here are my numbers, using the optimal formula of:

expected average + net pegging = optimal value

Keep	Toss		Optimal value	Average   hand	Own  crib	Expected   average	Average pegging:     Net (Pone/Dealer)
2-6-6-7	5-5		18.84	8.70	8.80	17.50	+1.35 (1.52/2.87)
5-5-6-7	2-6		18.32	12.17	3.45	15.62	+2.70 (1.26/3.96)
5-6-6-7	2-5		19.29	11.70	5.38	17.08	+2.22 (1.50/3.72)

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.