Ask the experts, July 2004

You're dealer with the score tied 120*-120. You deal yourself 2-2-5-6-9-10. What do you keep?

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Dan Barlow:

I keep 2-5-9-10. Opponent must lead an A, 3, 4, 7 or 8 to keep me from winning. And I have a reasonably safe play on any of those five cards, should opponent find one of them.

John Chambers:

In this situation I would keep 2-2-5-9. Tenth cards comprise 30.7% of the deck. If your opponent has one or more tenth cards in his hand, he may have to lead one, so I would definitely keep the 5. I would also keep the two deuces. If you have two deuces it's likely he doesn't have any. And they're good cards to have if you need to play off. I would not keep the 10 because if your opponent does lead a 10 you have the 5 to make 15. Now to the 6 and the 9. I would not keep the 6 because it is too close to the 5 and would make playing off more difficult. The 9 gives you a better chance of playing off, say, if a 4 is the lead.

DeLynn Colvert:

2-5-9-10. This maximizes my chances of hitting the first card lead. The 9 is better than the 6 as it combines with the 2 to form 11 and stopping a ten-card lead (however, two ten-cards would probably not be held by opponent, unless forced to do so, which happens from time to time).

George Rasmussen:

I would retain 2-2-5-9. Retaining the 9 in preference to the 6 gives a wider range of cards. The 9 can score on either a 6 or 9 as played. Dealer will want to play away from an opening lead if unable to score on it. Either the deuce or 9 should provide an opportunity to do so. The dealer needs only to receive a go or play the final card to win this game.

Michael Schell:

Start with 2-5 for obvious reasons. I prefer the 6 to the 9 in case I get a 3 lead. That leaves me with a choice between the 10 and a second 2. I think the 10 is probably the right choice, since it spaces out the cards best (a legitimate factor when you're battling for the first go) and provides an acceptable reply to a 7 lead. I'll go with 2-5-6-10.

Phyllis Schmidt:

2-2-5-9. A good variety, if I can't hit the first card played, I'll hopefully play away with these cards and hit his next choice.

Peter Setian:

I would say 2-2-5-9 gives you the best chance of staying away from possible runs (on a 3 or 4 lead) and getting the first go, as well as scoring on the opening lead of course.

HALSCRIB:

In endgame pegging battles I keep the hand that minimizes opponent's probability of pegging out while maximizing my own chances. In this scenario, the best defense is offense. Since I only need to make the first peg to win, I'm not interested in keeping a pair of 2s, so I'll keep the 10 instead as an "out" and to have the best spaced hand. I prefer the 6 to the 9 because it's safest on a 3 lead (and since I have a 5 there's no particular value to the 2-9 magic eleven). But the 9 is only microscopically worse, so either 2-5-6-10 or 2-5-9-10 looks good to me.

Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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