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Dan Barlow:

I toss the Qs. Dealer is unlikely to get a double run, as I have two J. Keeping J-J-Q-Q loses on all but three cuts. Tossing J-Q is actually more likely to give up a double run. With a good cut, you might steal dealer's crib here. If I needed 18 and dealer needed 10, I'd keep J-J-Q-Q, and if I needed 20 and dealer needed 30, I'd give him A-Q. But this early in the game I am content to keep what will give me the most points on the most cuts.

John Chambers:

With the score tied at 47-47, both players would be in good position as the dealer. Since you are the nondealer, the dealer is about three holes ahead of his average. In other words, on average he would be at hole 44*. This being the case, as the nondealer, you have to hope his hand and crib are below average, and minimize his pegging. You could keep A-4-J-J but you're discarding a pair of Qs to your opponent. In this situation this could be dangerous. After all a tenth card is cut about of the time. You could keep J-J-Q-Q and discard A-4 but the same principle applies as in the previous example. I would keep the 4-J-J-Q in this position. You are already in position. And It's not how many points you get this time. It's how many points your opponent will get in his hand, crib and pegging.. So break up the crib, and if your opponent gets a below average hand and doesn't peg much you would be in good position.

DeLynn Colvert:

I keep J-J-Q-Q. Since you hold four face cards, the A-4 danger is diminished somewhat, and if you hit a 16 hand, the game is in your corner.

George Rasmussen:

Do I play six points here and chance Q-Q to opponent crib? Or do I play A-4-J-Q for four points and toss J-Q to crib? None of those sound good to me at this point on board. Dealer is already four points beyond minimal position on second street. If dealer has average hand, crib, pegs on this deal and average on next hand as non-dealer, will have very good position. Challenge to opponent is to keep crib small and avoid pegs. In this situation at hole 47, there is nothing to be gained by non-dealer playing six points and tossing Q-Q or playing four points with J-Q discard. The major way the position advantage of the dealer could be altered is to keep crib size down. The only defensive discard in this entire hand is the A-Q. Do it and play two points and take only safe pegs. You can give the dealer an average hand in this position. You just cannot afford to give anything else. Your position is fine to deal if you can keep your opponent at holes 55–57. Add a crib and pegs to that and you're in trouble. Strict adherence to board position principals will dictate maximum defense for pone in this area.

Michael Schell:

This is a damn hard problem to evaluate over the board. Let's start by reviewing some theory. We're both near the positional hole, so the four-to-one rule comes into play. I talk about this rule, and the concept of the yellow zone here. (And yes, the four-to-one rule applies around every positional hole, not just the Fourth Street one, although its impact is proportionately greater the closer you are to home.) To summarize, if an aggressive keep gets me four times as many points on average than it costs me in the crib, it's worth doing, even in an ostensibly defensive position.

There seem to be four choices: the aggressive A-4-J-J, the defensive 4-J-J-Q, the middling A-4-J-Q, and the all-or-nothing J-J-Q-Q. I'll dispense with the middling approach first: J-Q in opponent's crib gives up 5.5 points on average. Q-Q gives up just .3 more at 5.8. Although the retained Js appear to make the Q-Q toss less dangerous than usual, Hessel's computer modeling shows that run blockers only have value if the discarded card is between 2 and 8 (see here). Nevertheless, J-Q is only nominally safer than Q-Q, and certainly isn't worth a two point sacrifice.

I'll let HALSCRIB give the scoop on the interesting J-J-Q-Q alternative. That leaves me with 4-J-J-Q. It gives up 4.3 points on average, and here the retained 4 does count for something (as a 15 blocker), subtracting about .05 points from the relative risk in this particular case. Let's say that tossing A-Q is 1¼ points safer than tossing Q-Q. A-4-J-J keeps four points more than 4-J-J-Q (and in reality averages 3½ points more). That clearly doesn't reach the four-to-one threshold, so I'll just toss the safe A-Q, planning to lead the 4, and hoping to prevail on the back end if my opponent's cards start to falter.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I would keep A-4-J-Q. It's a variety of cards, and I'm not giving any points to the crib, just potential!

Peter Setian:

I would keep 4-J-J-Q. Even with a lucky cut for 16 points (holding J-J-Q-Q), I would still be a little short of a good dealing position on Third Street. So I would choose the most conservative discard to try and hold the dealer back as much as possible.

HALSCRIB:

Schell already explained why we can eliminate A-4-J-Q from serious consideration. Otherwise we have one of those troublesome questions of how aggressively to discard. I'm going to run A-4-J-J, 4-J-J-Q and J-J-Q-Q through my simulator and see where the distribution of scores at deal's end comes out. I can then evaluate them based on my knowledge of my winning chances at those different scores.

No matter what I do I'm an underdog here. The most likely result is for the game to end five deals after this one, when my opponent has first count. The problem with playing conservatively here by tossing A-Q is that it commits me to a defensive game plan and opens up the risk that even if my opponent falters, I might not reach the game hole after he takes his first count. I'm at 47 now — so far so good — but if I only keep two points, and I have to peg defensively for a few deals, the prospect of falling short is a real one.

Alternatively I can keep six points with A-4-J-J. It's not as good defensively in the crib, but it's a little safer in the pegging (leading the 4 from 4-J-J-Q is awkward on a 7 reply), and those extra points could be very valuable down the stretch. My estimate is that this weighs in favor of A-4-J-J to the tune of 1–2% better winning chances.

J-J-Q-Q is an interesting try. It gets me to 63 points on eight cuts, a 17% shot. That's still several points short of position, though, even after allowing for average pegging, so I'll estimate that my chance of winning on the front end this way by "jumping" my opponent is about 5%. Unfortunately tossing him A-4 while also keeping a lousy defensive pegging hand (with little diversity and no low card lead) rates to lower my back end (defensive) winning chances by 6–7%. This isn't a good tradeoff unless I'm desperate for a skunk. It's A-4-J-J for me.

As hard as this problem is to evaluate accurately, you humans can at least take comfort in knowing that unless you pick the clearly inferior A-4-J-Q, you won't be making too bad a mistake whatever you do.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.