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Dan Barlow:

Pone is sweating as much as I am here. If he has enough, he's worried that I'll peg six. If he has almost enough, he's worried that he won't peg the two or three holes he needs. I'm inclined to hope he doesn't have eight, because pegging six holes when pone doesn't need to peg will require a lot of luck. If I assume he doesn't have enough, I should play the 4, the card on which he's least likely to peg. If I accidentally grab the wrong card, the 8, and pone plays an A, I'll play the 4 now. If he has a 4 and an A and a 7, he probably would have led the 4 whether he has enough or not, so he's unlikely to peg on my 4.

John Chambers:

In this situation after the non-dealer leads a 7 after a 7 has been cut as the starter, I would play the 2. If you played the 4 it set up a 15-4. If you played the 9 you would set up a run for three points. And if you played the 8 you also set up run possibilities. And remember your opponent only needs eight points to win the game, so any points given to your opponent could be costly. If I made it 15 and then my opponent played an A, I would assume that my opponent has at least close to the amount he needs and doesn't want me to peg.. That being the case I would try to keep the low cards till the end of the play and hopefully you can go out by pegging. I would therefore play the 9.

DeLynn Colvert:

I'm dealer needing six to win? It appears a 7 cut gives him the needed eight points to win, so peg on. Play the 8. Then on an A response for 16, play the 2 for 18, keeping the count low so you may pair a 6 if that's played next. That'll give you four cumulative points, hopefully a go, and your last card will put you out. Good luck, but looks grim...

George Rasmussen:

A seven lead with a 7 on the deck is a bit frightening. Could suggest that opponent has a strong hand with middle cards and more than enough to count first and win game. It could also be a bit of psychology in leading a 7 from unrelated cards to match starter card to gain a possible pegging advantage over dealer. I would take the 15-2 believing at this point my chance to win is to take those two, possibly a run with the nine and hang on to those two small cards to end of play. When my opponent drops the A as second card played, my sense is that they're dumping a dangerous small card — one that poses a threat if retained to end of playing sequence. Put that 2 right on it. If your opponent has a 2 to pair or a 3 to create a run of three, they likely don't have enough points to get out with one exception: if they are holding A-3-4-7 with 7 cut, they have eight points and the pegging game is of no concern to them. I'm betting that opponent does not have that hand as most folks would lead the 4 as a defensive play, holding enough points to count out.

Michael Schell:

Staring at the 7 lead with a 7 cut on the table, I'm asking myself:

• How likely is it that she doesn't have eight points given what I'm seeing?
• How likely is it that I can peg six points if I play on here?

I'd quickly come to the decision to take the 15-2, figuring that if she can peg on it, I probably have nothing to lose by making the aggressive play. If she replies with a 6 I win immediately with my 9, and if she replies with an 8 she has eight points showing already. If she gets a run with a 9 I might it regret it later, though I could then play the 4, hoping to either trap an A, or else catch a 6 or 9 lead on the second play series.

My heart sinks on the A reply, as this probably means she's out if she lives to count her hand. I don't see much point in making the count 25 with the 9 — that only helps if she has a stray 2. I'll drop the 4, hoping that she has A-6-7-8 and plays the 8 next. I'll get the go, then a 15-3 on her 6 lead to win.

Phyllis Schmidt:

After taking the 15-2 with the 8, I would play the 9 next, keeping my remaining two cards closes together to hopefully get a run at the end.

Peter Setian:

Deciding to make the count 15 is the tough part. Once done, I would easily play the 4 to make the count 20. If the pone has enough points with a 6 and another middle card left, they'll likely hold the 6 (as opposed to making the count 26 on top of the 4). Then you'll peg out with the 9 on the end. If pone doesn't have enough to go out, playing the 4 shouldn't create problems of more pegging opportunities.

HALSCRIB:

I don't like my chances here. Before the cut I'm a 2-to-1 underdog. I agree with the 5-5 toss if the objective is to minimize opponent's pegging. However, it also minimizes our own pegging. I would have tossed 4-9. In the presented scenario, I would reply with the 2. Holding 2-4-9, my winning chances through pegging are about 20%, about twice that of the 4 and four times that of the 9. Had I tossed the 4-9, I would reply with the 5.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.