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Dan Barlow:

Normally when playing defensively, I'd rather have three choices than two later in the play, and would lead from a pair. But low touching cards are dangerous — the last thing you want is to get stuck with 5-6 as your last two cards. It could go something like this:

^Q  ₇  ^Q  _2 (29-1)    ⁶  ₃  ⁵  _4 (18-5)

Now if dealer has a four point crib, he can win with a dozen next hand. If leading the 6 holds his pegging to four holes or fewer, he needs 14+, a tall order.

John Chambers:

In this situation it is not how many points you get but how few your opponent gets. If he gets too many between his pegging, hand and crib he won't need a lot to go out on with his first count. I would lead the Q. Why? Because I have a 5 in my hand. The more of a particular card you have in your hand, the less your opponent is likely to have one. Of course, he could have a 5 but that's the chance you take by playing the percentages. If he did make it 15-2 I would play the other other Q, making the count 25. After all, he could have four points in his hand, and you want to minimize the pegging.

DeLynn Colvert:

I lead from the "safe" pair of Q, but on a 15-2, I'm avoiding trouble, hopefully, with the second Q for 25.

George Rasmussen:

My lead would be from the pair. There are five possible cards that could score on the Q lead (5-5-5-Q-Q). In leading the 6, there are seven possible scoring plays (6-6-6-9-9-9-9). If the dealer plays a 5 on a Q lead for 15-2, I make count 25 with the remaining Q. Might even get a go and close the count with the 6 for 31-2.

Michael Schell:

A Q would be the percentage lead for holding down dealer's average scoring, since it has the fewest immediate losers (five) and leaves you with the ostensibly well spaced 5-6-Q. The tricky thing, though, is that you can get really screwed this way if dealer turns out to have one or two 5s, a run containing a 5 or a 5-x-x-x hand. In practice, a ten-card lead from a 5-6-x-x hand is often an all-or-nothing lead: you'll often hold dealer to one or two pegs, but also will often give up seven or eight. Still, with dealer only -5, I'd go ahead and lead a Q. But if he was a few holes further back, I'd play prevent defense and lead the 6, sacrificing more immediate pairs and 15s, but leaving myself with the safer 5-Q-Q, which is not likely to give big pegs if dealer can score on the 6.

In the event, dealer takes a 15-2 on my Q, and I have to decide whether to pair it. The conventional wisdom would have me drop the second Q, avoiding the risk of getting tripled, or giving up a run to a 4-6 combo. The conventional wisdom might be right — with a 10 cut showing, dealer could have ten point with something like 3-5-5-7 or 4-5-5-x, and the extra six points could well kill me. But I've also gotten killed playing it "safe" with this hand:

^Q  _5 (15-2)  ^Q  _6 (31-2)    ⁶  _6 (12-2)  ⁵  _7 (24-4)

Mitigating this is the fact that with 5-6-x-x you're safe playing high against dealer's 5-x-x-x, since your second ten-card can't get trapped into a run if you get a go at 25 (this isn't the case if you start with 5-x-x-x, which often argues for pairing dealer's 5 even on defense). So over the board, I'd drop the second Q and hope not to get trapped against a double run. But it'll be interesting to see if the bots cause us to revisit how we play this hand in the next few years.

Phyllis Schmidt:

If the play started:

^Q  _5 (15-2)  ^?

I would play another Q. There is nowhere to go after the 25-2. In fact I would have led the 6 to start with so that I wouldn't be left with a 5 and 6 at the end.

Peter Setian:

I would lead the 6. Knowing that the crib holds 8-10-K-?-?, I wouldn't mind seeing a 9 or 5 coming out of the dealer's hand. But I also have safer replays of 22 or 20 if the 6 lead is paired or fifteened.

But if the play starts:

^Q  _5 (15-2)  ^?

I'd play the other Q and give up the better chance of 31 versus a possible triple. Again, mainly because the dealer's position is short, needing more than a couple extra points. But any responding play will be trouble if the dealer holds the 4-5-6 double run.

HALSCRIB:

Simulating the win/loss percentages for the various leads, a Q lead is clearly best. Interestingly, the 5 is second-best, winning about 5% less often, with the 6 a trifle worse. Dealer is still close enough to win with slightly better-than-average cards and overly timid pegging on my part. So we lead a tactically-superior Q.

Based on dealer's reply of the 5, of all the possible hands dealer may have, about 7.5% of them are worth sixteen points or more. The good news is that her average crib is about 3.4 points. Whether to play the second Q or pair the 5 is a very close call, but I give a slight edge to refusing the pair. This is worse against double runs, but it keeps you out of the triple, and nets out better against the most likely dealer hands, namely 5-x-x-x and 4-5-6-9/x.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.