Ask the experts, November 2005

Return to a similar theme from our July 2005 question. You're pone, ahead 74-62*. You were dealt 4-5-5-7-8-J and kept 5-5-7-J. After cutting the wrong 10, what do you lead?

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Dan Barlow:

If I lead the 7, and dealer plays an 8, it won't be pleasant. If I lead the J, the one card I don't want dealer to play is a 6. The difference is, dealer will strive to play an 8 if I lead a 7, but he has no idea a 6 will make me uncomfortable if I lead the J. The possibility that he has two 5s, which would result in big pegging on my part clinches it: I lead the J.

DeLynn Colvert:

With a ten point hand, I would lead the J, hoping for a possible 5-5-5-5 pegging sequence and a 15 point peg job. If your opponent plays a 6 or 7, you are in a world of hurt, but take a pair of 7s (God forbid).

George Rasmussen:

Dealer is short dealing at 62*. I like my position and don't want to get trapped in pegging runs. Lead one of those 5s. The only escape card in this hand is the J. Keep it until you have to drop it. The most likely thing that will happen on your 5 lead is for dealer to score 15-2. Few folks will pair the 5 when led. If your opponent does pair the 5 lead, it might be an enticement for you to take the 15-8, and you cannot afford to take the chance on giving up the fourth 5 for twelve points.

Keep your opponent at a disadvantage by playing board position wisely.

Michael Schell:

The normal play with 5-5-mid-x is to lead from strength, which means leading the ten-card. This way you're facing only five immediate losers, two of which can be safely retaliated on. Statistically this trumps the awkwardness of being left with a bunched up holding when the mid-card is a 6 or 7. However with a positional advantage of +14 to -8 before the deal, and holding a hand worth two points more than average, the appropriate strategy here is prevent defense. Outpegging dealer or shutting his pegging down entirely is not as important as preventing a big peg. That being the case, the right lead is the 7, more likely to give up a quick score, but leaving you with the better spaced 5-5-J. Note the similarity with the June 2005 problem, where I led the 6 from 5-6-Q-Q in a prevent defense situation.

On dealer's 8 reply, play the J. This will leave you with the vulnerable-looking 5-5, but by making the count 25, you'll probably drive out a lone 6, reducing the likelihood that you'll get trapped into a run on the second play series.

Leading a 5 would be a reasonable prevent defense maneuver if dealer was further back or if the starter wasn't a ten-card, but it looks too loose to me with a matching cut and dealer starting only eight points out of position.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I lead the 7, then try to play away on the next card with a 5. If not, I can play the J.

Peter Setian:

I would lead the 7. Middle cards could be played by dealer for 15-2 and 31-2 like this:

7  8 (15-2)  J  6 (31-2)

But if that happens, the crib could easily be minimal.

HALSCRIB:

Before the cut, my winning chances were about 77% as dealer four deals hence, with just enough points to count out. The favorable cut has increased my winning chances to about 81% with three holes to spare. I calculate that opponent will be at hole 112 on average at the end of the game.

I'm concerned about giving up a big score if I lead the J and get trapped with the inflexible 5-5-7. Still, leading a 5 would play into dealer's hand if he holds something like x-x-x-x (with a potential 16-point hand). I calculate that my winning chances are best leading the 7, dropping by .5% leading the J and by 1.5% leading a 5. Based on my this, I will lead the 7.


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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

DeLynn Colvert (1931–2019) is the highest rated tournament player in the history of organized cribbage. He was a five-time National Champion, author of Play Winning Cribbage, longtime editor of the monthly magazine Cribbage World, and the ACC's only Life Master - Seven Stars. He also directed two annual tournaments in Missoula, MT, served as the ACC's President, and was one of the game's most affable emissaries. It's scarcely an exaggeration to say that Colvert's career defines modern cribbage.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Phyllis Schmidt is a charter member of the ACC, and has been playing cribbage for about 40 years. She is a Life Master - One Star, a Senior Judge, a National Champion (1992) and winner of the ACC Tournament of Champions (2005). She attends about 30 tournaments a year.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.


 
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