Score 37*-39: You tossed yourself 3 4, retaining 5 9 J K. The cut is the 6 and pone leads the 9. What's your play?

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Dan Barlow:

I'm always suspicious of a 9 lead. If he has a 3, that would have been a better lead. If he has 7s, 8s and 9s, he shouldn't be leading the 9. If he has a 6, it would be a better lead. My guess is that he's got a pair of 9s, or maybe A-5-5-9. I play the K. In the unlikely event he has A-A-9-K, he'll peg six, but I'll get three of them back.

John Chambers:

In this situation I would pair the 9. You are about seven points out of position (hole 44). You have a good hand. But you need more than that from the hole you're in. You need to take a chance by pegging. You need to get into a position where your next hand as the non-dealer will get you into position on Third Street for your three counts.

DeLynn Colvert:

The suit of the 6 and 9 are red herrings. I would play my 5, keeping the 9-J for last to try for a run with the last two cards.

George Rasmussen:

I do not like dealing from hole 37* with opponent at 39. This game appears close, but isn't. As dealer I am short seven holes from the start of the Second Street critical position zone. Email me if you would like more specifics on CPZs.

Since the starter card is the 6 to match my flush, I have 15-6, a five-card flush, and the right J for a total of 12 points. I don't really know if the 6 cut is of any value in the crib with my 3-4 discard. A 6 cut with a 9 lead is somewhat alarming, as I want my opponent to have a small hand count. Most players would lead the 6 if playing a 6-9 couplet. The lead of a 9 is often made from a pair. I play defensively in this situation and put the K on that 9 lead. I want to limit opponent to fewest possible points on score of hand and don't want to give opportunities for non-dealer pegging.

Michael Schell:

I start the deal -7 to pone's +5, not great shape, but not horrible. (I probably started the game as pone, so I've at least improved from the -8 to +8 I had at the outset.) The cut gives me a 12 point hand, four more than the average. My 3-4 in the crib is ordinarily worth 4.9, about average, though it's not clear that the 6 will help. I'll call that even and guess that I'm effectively -3 thanks to my hand. Since that's closer to 0 then pone's +5, and since pone's lead matches the starter, I'm going to guess that I have better winning chances playing on than playing off or playing balanced. Thus I'll take the naked pair and grab two points off the 9. This risks giving up a 27-7, but if pone has two 9s, she already has minimum position wrapped up with two cards left to play. And if she has a hand heavy in mid-cards, there's a good chance that my crib will catch a couple extra low cards for seven or 12 more points.

Good players have traditionally regarded a 9 lead as particularly dangerous to pair, and for good reason. But modern players are increasingly leading a lone 9, say from 5-6-9-x or 9-10-J-Q. So it's getting somewhat less dangerous to take this kind of pair than it used to be.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I play my 5, staying away from any matching of cards. I have a really good hand, so I'm going to hold back.

Peter Setian:

Hmm...to go for it, or not to? All things considered, I would pair the 9 lead for three reasons:

• I'm within reach of a good dealing position, especially if the pone threw a 2 in the crib
• Even if I play defensively (K) pone is likely to still get a very good dealing position (45+ next hand), especially with the 6 cut and a second 9 in the hand, so...
• With that second 9 in the pone's hand, I don't think the six more peg points will be as crucial as my two peg points, unless the pone has an unusual 20 point hand

HALSCRIB:

After the cut and opponent's lead, I expect to lose the game seven deals hence if scoring is average on subsequent deals. As I calculate the odds, my best shot to win is to play aggressively and get the game over with in six deals. Hopefully I'll count out as pone then, or perhaps peg out as dealer on the 7th deal. Though I'm an underdog either way, I figure I have better chances pairing the 9 than playing safe with the 5 or K.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.