You're dealer at 117*-111: You kept A 5 9 Q, tossing the 9 J. The cut is the 2 and pone leads the 4. What's your reply?

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Dan Barlow:

That 4 is a good lead if he has enough and is trying to stop me, or if he needs to peg two and has an A. It's a guess. I'd go with the Q. If he has an A and plays it, I get two holes, and have a shot at two gos, if not a pair or 15-2. If he has no A, I'm on the way to holding his pegging down.

John Chambers:

In this position, its possible for you to peg out. Therefore, I would play the Q because I have an A and if my opponent plays an A for 15 for 2, I can pair him. I would only have two more holes to go out before my opponent counts his hand.

DeLynn Colvert:

The 9. I see two 9s and a 2. He needs ten points to win. My ability to peg four is suspect, but it's worth a try if I you can hit the first card. In this case, I cannot, so I play defense.

George Rasmussen:

A quick and careful analysis of board position is always essential. Dealer's average on pegging is 3.6 to 3.8. Non-dealer's average on hand score and pegs is around nine points. Got to play those numbers in this case. It would be unusual if I could peg four holes with A-5-9-Q, with the best possibility being on the lead of an x-pointer. The lead is a disappointing 4. I certainly cannot play the A or the 5 on that 4 lead, as I must avoid obvious pegging opportunities for non-dealer. If non-dealer wins the game, I want that win to be result of hand score on first count. Although the Q is a tempting play since I'm holding an A, the preferred play on the 4 lead is the 9, especially with the other 2 on the deck (though most likely I'd play the 9 for a count of 13 even if the starter was not a 2). I don't like holding the A, and I really hope that I can drop it safely on the next play.

Michael Schell:

Over the board, I'd rule out the A and 5 for the obvious reasons. Playing the Q kills me against 4-5-6-Q. Against pone's A-4-x-x, it doesn't matter either way, and if pone has a 2-3-4 run with the starter, then it probably also won't matter. Absent a clear reason not to, I'll just minimize the objective risk and play the 9 with 5 losers times 2 points (compared to the Q with 6 losers times 2 points).

Phyllis Schmidt:

I play the Q. I have one A, and I'm hoping the opponent doesn't have one also. I prefer to keep out of pegging situations until I can see another one of pone's cards.

Peter Setian:

I would play the Q, with the intention of pairing an A response (15-2) to make it 16 for two points. Then if pone has another A to triple (or another 4), chances are that I'll get the go twice to peg out.

HALSCRIB:

Pone's chances of winning are about 50% if I don't peg out. So if I had my druthers, I would have kept the J to increase my chances of pegging out. At least the flush gives me flexibility in choosing to play defense or offense.

Based on the situation, I reckon that pone's six most likely holdings that don't automatically win for her if I don't peg out are:

• A-4-10-J
• A-4-10-Q
• A-4-J-Q
• 3-4-5-7
• 4-5-6-9
• 4-5-6-10

3-4-5-6 may also win for pone if I peg carelessly. Now for the six most likely hands that do win outright for pone if I don't peg out first:

• 2-3-4-5
• 2-3-4-8
• 3-3-4-5
• 4-4-5-6
• 4-5-5-6
• 4-5-6-6

Since I hate the humiliation of letting pone win through pegging, I'm going to play the A, which is actually the safest from a pure defensive perspective. Note how the only hands above with a ten-card in them will fall short even giving up a 15-2. Nevertheless, the 9 and Q are also good alternatives. The following are my calculations that reckon against all of pone's possible hands:

Play	Lose on pone's first count	Win by       pegging out
A	37.7%	14.1%
5	48.3%	23.8%
9	38.8%	29.1%
Q	38.4%	23.3%

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.