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Dan Barlow:

Although my opponents usually don't even need their first count on the next hand to win from this position, it's obvious I have to hold dealer to a little as possible. 6-K, 7-K, and 10-K are all good throws when trying to prevent a big crib, and since I'd be happy tossing any of those combinations, I choose the one that gives me the most points on the most cuts. I toss 7-K. If I were further along I'd go with 10-K, but I'm in danger of being no better off on my deal than opponent is now, so I need all the points I can get.

John Chambers:

Being the non-dealer at hole 86, I am looking to get to at least hole 96 for my three counts on Fourth Street. I would keep the most points which are 5-10-10-K. Remember, tenth cards are the ones cut most as the starter.

George Rasmussen:

Even though I would like to play eight points with 5-10-10-K, the 6-7 discard poses too much risk for a high scoring crib. I will toss 10-K, and play the 5-6-7-10. A cut of 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or x increases the value of my hand.

Michael Schell:

Dealer is -1 while I'm at par. If dealer jumps into position, it probably won't matter how many points I get, so I've got to slow him down here. Tossing 6-7 is out of the question — I'm just too likely to catch a 5, a mid-card or a in there. It's an interesting choice between 5-6-7-10 and 5-6-10-10 though. The former goes all out for defense with the 10-K toss (which is even more penurious than usual when I have a 5 and another 10 accounted for). 5-6-7-10 with a 7 lead is a pretty good pegging hand for either offense or defense (depending on how the cut goes). 5-6-10-10 starts with one point more, though I'll drop the spread to ½ point in my over-the-board addition method since it breaks up all the runs I was dealt. Though 5-6-x-x is a good pegging hand for dealer, I don't think it's great for pone if you're aim is to hold down dealer's pegging. I'm guessing that the pegging superiority of 5-6-7-10 is worth the ½ point differential. Add in the defensive advantage of tossing 10-K over 7-10 and I'll give the nod to 5-6-7-10.

Peter Setian:

I would still throw 10-K (instead of 7-K). Except for an A cut, the hand counts seven or more points. I plan to lead the 10 and pair a 5 response, hoping the dealer does not have two 5s when you pair the first one. One 5 would be fine, as that would greatly decrease the chance of a good crib. If the cut card is a match to the hand, then lead the 6 to be able to stay away from pegging trouble a little better.

REX:

In a close game where either player is in position on Fourth Street I play safe (a summary measure that takes into account my hand value as well as opponent's crib and pegging) or bold depending on who will probably have first count on the final deal, Otherwise I play either def (defense) or off (offense). As a robot I have to abide by the finite limits my creator defined regardless of which theory I have to use.

If programmed to use 26-theory, I figure that dealer is even at 95*, and that I need to hold down his average scoring while preserving a decent amount of offense for myself. I'll pick 5-6-10-10, which gets the best def value, which I calculate as the sum of average hand minus opponent's crib minus opponent's pegging. However, using 25-theory, dealer is -1 at 95*, so I'll give more weight to "worst case" scenarios. My pick in that case is 5-6-7-10, which gets the best safe rating:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Opponent's   crib:		Defensive (dealer) pegging:		Defensive Value		Safe
5-6-7-10	10-K		7.80		3.72		-3.17		0.91		3
5-6-10-10	7-K		8.07		4.07		-2.59		1.41		1
5-7-10-10	6-K		7.80		3.94		-2.65		1.21		0
5-10-10-K	6-7		9.39		6.04		-2.70		0.60		0

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.