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Dan Barlow:

Is it possible he played that 5 because he has another 5? Sure. Odds aren't favorable that there were three 5s among the twelve cards we were dealt, but they aren't low, either. There are other reasons he might have played the 5. He could be getting rid of it so he doesn't get stuck leading it later. From 3-4-5-7 the 4 was a good opening lead because if I pair he can get the two points back with his 7:

⁴  _4 (8-2)  ^7 (15-2)

Likewise, the 5 is a good play on my Q because if I pair it he can get the two points back with his 7. I'm pairing the 5. If he triples, I get two points back (31-2). I've lost two points, but I still have at least a Go coming. And playing the 2 or the 8 could just as easily have allowed him to peg two points.

John Chambers:

No, in this position, as the dealer, you are already about eight holes above average position. Why give up those holes to bad pegging? I would play off because your opponent could have a 20 hand. Don't help him improve his position with pegging.

George Rasmussen:

With the cut of the 3, I have six points in hand and with A-A to crib, I'm likely to have 4‒6 points in crib since I am holding a 2 in the hand. Given that, would take the two points for pairing the 5. That might put me over 40 at end of hand. I would like to reach second street critical position zone of 43‒47. If I can't reach that zone, I want to be close.

Michael Schell:

I started the deal +8 to pone's -11, the cut only leaves me with six in the hand (two less than average). I probably stood to make up most of that in the crib, at least until pone played a 4 and a 5 (though I guess catching a 2 is still a possibility). I'd say the position calls for balanced play, and since I can retaliate for two points if I'm tripled, I'll go ahead and pair the 5:

⁴  _Q  ⁵  _5 (24-2)  ^5 (29-6)  _2 (31-2)

If I do get nailed, I'll blame it on DeLynn Colvert's admonition that pone's second card is usually the safest to pair (grin).

Peter Setian:

Absolutely Not! Dealing from a conservative board position, I'd play the 2 and make the count 21. I cannot get stuck in a run for the pone, nor will I get caught with the 5 at the end, like::

⁴  _Q  ⁵  _{8  2 (30-1)}    ⁴  ₅  ^6 (15-6)

I'm doing all I can to keep the pone from getting pegging points in the event they have a better than average hand.

REX:

Yes, I pair the 5. In my analysis I consider all possible holdings pone could have (all 1820 of them). The Top Ten most frequent (refactored, and sorted by frequency of occurrence) are as follows. Note that only one of them includes a second 5:

Hand	Frequency
4-5-6-K	7126
4-5-6-6	6543
4-4-5-6	6396
4-5-6-7	4126
4-5-6-9	3759
4-5-5-6	3560
3-4-4-5	2939
3-3-4-5	2739
3-4-5-6	2629
3-4-5-K	2409

By pairing I increase my overall winning changes by about 5% and reduce my losing chances by another 5% for a net gain of 10% compared to the other choices.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.