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Dan Barlow:

I keep 3-4-K-K. Those four cards can all work together if the cut is a 2 or 5. 3-4-7-7 can work together, but I'd rather toss 7s in my crib than Ks. I would seriously consider saving 7-7-K-K if I needed to peg three holes, while pone was maybe four holes from victory. If pone saves low cards, I might peg three with one of those pairs. For instance:

³  ₇  ^Q  ₇  ^{2  A (30-1)}    _{K  K (20-3)}

⁴  _K  ^A (15-2)  _K  ^{2  3 (30-1)}    _{7  7 (14-3)}

Of course, needing to peg four, instead of three, I would prefer to have the 3-4, rather than a pair at the end, in hopes pone will help me make a run.

John Chambers:

Yes, the are a few positions on the board in which I would keep 7-7-K-K. The most obvious would be if I had 5* holes to go and my opponent had 16 holes to go. I would want to break up my hand sufficiently so my opponent doesn't peg. Since I have two 7s, I would assume my opponent wouldn't have these cards in his hand.

DeLynn Colvert:

I am mystified as well. I would throw the Ks, and hold the 4-7 combo for pegging.

George Rasmussen:

It's easy to answer my own question. With a standalone 7-7 or 7-8, they'll go in my crib and I will play the other four, except for end of game situations. In that case, I would retain 3-4-7-7 and ditch the K-K. The only situation in which I can visualize retaining 7-7-K-K as dealer from any starting six would be end of game, opponent needs six or less points to count out, and I've dealt myself bad pegging cards, such as 7-7-10-Q-K-K. In that case (assuming I need 2–5 points to peg out), the two pairs are better than retaining the 10-Q, which has virtually no pegging value. In any other situation, I would not hold 7-7-K-K as dealer.

Michael Schell:

I'll start by explaining how I'd approach this decision over the board. A rule of thumb that I use as dealer for 2/2/2 hands like 3-4-7-7-K-K states that the lo/mid keep (3-4-7-7 in this case) will peg the best of the lot, about ½ net point better than the lo/hi keep (3-4-K-K in our case), which will in turn peg about ½ point better than the mid/hi keep (7-7-K-K). I combine this with points retained in hand and average crib value to come up with a ballpark estimate:

Keep	Toss		Retained in hand		Own crib:		Relative pegging		Total
3-4-7-7	K-K		2		4.6		+1.0		+7.6
3-4-K-K	7-7		2		5.9		+0.5		+8.4
7-7-K-K	3-4		4		4.9				+8.9

Are you surprised to see 7-7-K-K on top and 3-4-7-7 in last place? Well, notice how 3-4 performs better in your own crib than K-K, even though the latter is worth two points going in! Nevertheless, experience would lead me to adjust 3-4-K-K upwards since it will obviously improve more with the cut on average than 7-7-K-K, which starts out with two points more. In that light, I'll usually make the natural toss of 7-7, retaining 3-4-K-K. But not always!

You see, most of the pegging advantage that the lo/mid and lo/hi hands have is on offense. If I'm playing off, I'd rather not keep 3-4-K-K, which leaves me without a good response to a ten-card lead, so that leaves me to choose between 3-4-7-7 and 7-7-K-K. Best against pone's 5/x hands is 3-4-7-7, which has a magic eleven and will actually pitch a shutout in that scenario. It probably gives up the fewest pegs on average of any of the three normal choices (ignoring endgame pegging options like 3-4-7-K or 4-7-K-K). But 3-4-K-K lacks a comfortable reply to a mid-card lead. In a prevent defense situation, where I aim to avoid giving up a large peg, rather than minimizing opponent's average pegging, 7-7-K-K looks like the best bet, retaining few targets for pone to try to triple or trap into a run. Scores like 88*-70 or 114*-100 look like good times to hold 7-7-K-K.

Now let's see how my thought process stacks up against "real" numbers:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Own crib:				Expected    average		Pegging (Mueller):
					Static	Delta	Dynamic				Net	(pone/dealer)
3-4-7-7	K-K		4.61		4.58	-0.02	4.56		9.17		+1.2	(1.6/2.9)
3-4-K-K	7-7		4.17		5.92	+0.16	6.08		10.25		+0.6	(1.9/2.5)
7-7-K-K	3-4		5.22		4.91	+0.20	5.11		10.33		+0.6	(1.8/2.4)

Pegging averages are still an inexact science, but Mueller's figures suggest that the 3-4-7-7 keep ordinarily can't be justified by its extra pegging potential — that K-K in your cat just costs too much, and the hand nets out ½ point behind 3-4-K-K and 7-7-K-K, which actually rate about the same in the stats.

The jury is still out, but I can't find any evidence to crucify Ras' friend for his 7-7-K-K keep. This may be another case where the conventional wisdom is due for some updating.

Phyllis Schmidt:

Are there any circumstances under which I would keep 7-7-K-K from this hand on my deal? No. I'd toss 7-7. A lot of cards will help 3-4-K-K, and I may get lucky in the crib with 7-7.

Peter Setian:

Hmm, I can't imagine any position where I would keep 7-7-K-K as the dealer. Even in a pegging situation where I (or both players) need three points (or less) to peg out, (or simply to defend against the pone from pegging with a needed hand), I would still keep 3-4-7-7. or 3-4-7-K.

HALSCRIB:

Under normal circumstances, I'll prefer 3-4-K-K, but the difference with 7-7-K-K isn't as great as the humans seem to think, and in defensive situations, 7-7-K-K will usually be my keep. It's true that 7-7-K-K is an inferior pegging hand to 3-4-7-7, but K-K in my crib is so much worse than 3-4 that as long as I expect to actually count my crib, I'd prefer to keep 7-7-K-K instead of 3-4-7-7, even though 3-4-7-7 gives up a trifle fewer pegs on average.

Actually the only keep that's hard to justify here is 3-4-7-7 in anything but an endgame pegging situation. It gives up a full point between hand and crib but gives me an extra half-point or so of net pegging:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Own crib		Pegging		Optimal  Value	Offense  Value	Defense  Value
							Net	(pone/dealer)
3-4-7-7	K-K		4.61		4.50		+1.24	(1.63/2.87)	10.35	11.98	7.48
3-4-K-K	7-7		4.17		6.12		+0.59	(1.91/2.50)	10.88	12.79	8.38
7-7-K-K	3-4		5.22		4.98		+0.57	(1.78/2.35)	10.77	12.55	8.42

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.