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Dan Barlow:

I toss A-8. I'm keeping the maximum points, and the card that helps A-8 the most, a 6, helps my own hand, 4-5-Q-Q, even more.

DeLynn Colvert:

I keep the 5-8-Q-Q, and toss the A-4. Why? I want the 5 to score a 15-2 if a ten-card is lead, and empirical knowledge sez an A-4 works better than a 5-8 in the crib. Peg on. An A-8 discard ain't all that bad either.

George Rasmussen:

In this case, play the discard averages. A-4 to own crib averages 5.416 and 5-8 averages 5.564. Although I have not done the research, I believe there is also slightly better pegging potential with A-4-Q-Q than with 5-8-Q-Q. I would go with 5-8 to my own crib. The numbers favor it!

Michael Schell:

A-4, 5-8 and 5-9 all return about 5.4 points in your own crib, so the choice comes down to pegging. I've seen pone lead enough ten-cards in my life that I think having a 5 in hand is worthwhile if I'm not specifically playing off. Thus with A-4-5-x-x and a stray mid-card, I'll retain the 5 with an 8 or a 9, tossing myself the A-4. However 5-7 is different. The possibility of a crib run raises its average to 6.0, clearly superior to A-4, so in that case I like to toss myself the 5-7.

Based on the above, I'd keep 5-8-Q-Q from this particular hand.

Phyllis Schmidt:

I toss 5-8. I'd keep my six points, and a 5 in the crib isn't too bad.

Peter Setian:

I would discard A-4 to my crib. Not even considering the possibility of holding a more defensive pegging hand, I choose A-4 over 5-8 (or 2-5) simply because there's a better chance of your discard being matched by the opponent for a 6 or 10 point crib. What's the chance the opponent will discard a 5?

HALSCRIB:

I have the positional advantage and with an average hand see no need to do anything drastic. I will choose the discard that maximizes my hand, crib, while minimizing opponent's pegging. I will base my decision on the following numbers:

Keep	Toss		Average   hand		Own crib		Opp. Pegging	Optimal  Value
A-4-Q-Q	5-8		7.83		5.54		-1.67	11.70
5-8-Q-Q	A-4		7.65		5.21		-1.85	11.01
4-5-Q-Q	A-8		8.26		3.77		-1.96	10.07

My choice is clear, and I will be surprised if any of the humans differ. I would discard 5-8.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written six books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.