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Dan Barlow:

My chances of skunking someone who needs 19 holes and has three hands and two pegging sequences to do it are not so great that I would base my toss on whether skunks count. I keep 2-3-7-8. This guarantees four points (more, if the cut is anything but a ten-card). The only other way to assure four points is to toss 7-8, but that's much riskier than tossing J-Q.

John Chambers:

The dealer is at hole 72 which is a couple of holes better than average position. On average, the dealer will beat the skunk. The non-dealer is at hole 90 and needs to get to at least average position (hole 96) on fourth street for his three counts. I would keep 2-3-J-Q. Remember, over 30% of the deck is tenth cards.

George Rasmussen:

I will keep 2-3-8-J and toss 7-Q. With the dealer at hole 72, I can't chance the 7-8 discard to hold four points even though many cuts will help a 2-3-J-Q hold. Based on my empirical data, 8-Q has a lower crib score than 7-Q. Even so, I will keep the 8 in preference to 7 as it offers a chance to close the count at 31 because of the presence of 3-J in the hand. With me at hole 90, it would not matter whether I was playing for a skunk or not. If I'm at hole 95, I would retain the 2-3-J-Q even though it's still unlikely that I would score a skunk.

Michael Schell:

I start the deal +4. Dealer is technically -24, but since he's only two points past the last positional hole, I'm not ready to give up on defense here and go all in with 2-3-J-Q. There's still a chance that I could win on the back end even with poor cards here, especially if I toss 7-Q or 8-Q to the crib. With 2-3-7-J or 2-3-8-J, I still have several shots at getting into at least marginal position on a favorable cut, and leading from a magic five is good from both an offensive and defensive pegging perspective (the latter if I get a bad cut). Since 8-Q is microscopically safer in opponent's crib than 7-Q, I'll go with 2-3-7-J.

Note that if dealer was several holes further along, say at 80*, then I wouldn't bother with defense, but would just keep 2-3-J-Q.

A skunk is unlikely here, but if I really needed one, I'd definitely discard defensively since dealer is already +6 to foil a skunk. The pertinent skunk positional hole is 66, which is 30 points behind the normal Fourth Street positional hole of 96.

Peter Setian:

I would throw J-Q to maximize the chance of making a five to seven point hand, as I envision the cut cards from A through K. A 10 point hand may not be necessary for a good dealing position next hand —  certainly not enough to take a chance with tossing 7-8 and possibly losing the game with a middle card cut. (If the crib is large due all high cards with the cut, I have a better chance of some peg points.)

If skunks count, I'd still play the same.

REX:

It's time for younger brother to take over the shop from sibling HALSCRIB and show both the humans and the old-timer bots how to do things. Here's the situation as I see it.As usual I, REX use my calculations for my selection:

Keep	Toss		Average  hand:		Opponent's   crib:		Pegging		% in two deals				% in three deals
							Net		Loss	Win	Skunk		Loss	Win
2-3-7-8	J-Q		5.39		5.92		-0.54		0.3	11.1	1.6		5.2	68.6
2-3-7-J	8-Q		4.93		4.14		-1.11		0.1	8.3	1.6		4.5	62.2
2-3-8-J	7-Q		4.93		4.13		-1.04		0.1	7.5	1.6		4.8	60.9
2-3-J-Q	7-8		7.28		7.47		-1.59		0.7	15.0	1.6		5.4	71.3

Notice that the 2-3-J-Q keep (7-8 toss) gives us a 15.1% chance of winning on the next deal (with a 1.6% chance of a skunk) and a 71.3% chance of winning on the deal after that. Nevertheless, in positions like this I play to minimize dealer's winning chances (the percentages in red above). And that means keeping the prudent 2-3-7-J instead. The chances for a skunk are virtually the same as the 2-3-J-Q keep.

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Panelists

Dan Barlow won the 1980 National Open Cribbage Tournament, and made the 1985 All American Cribbage Team. His cribbage strategy articles appeared in Cribbage World for many years, and can be seen on the ACC Web site. He also provides strategy tips at MSN Gaming Zone. He has written seven books on cribbage, two of which have been glowingly reviewed in Games Magazine. All, including his latest book Winning Cribbage Tips, are available at The Cribbage Bookstore.

John Chambers was one of the original founding members of the ACC. He is a Grand Master, winner of seven major tournaments, and author of Cribbage: A New Concept, He also directs three annual tournaments: the Ocean State Cribbage Classic, New England Peer Championship and Charity Cribbage Challenge.

George "Ras" Rasmussen is a Life Master - Two Stars, a four-time All-American, the national Grass Roots Division 1 champion in 2009, a former state champion in Virginia, Montana and Washington, and holds a Gold Award and a President's Award. He also directs the Washington State Championship, held each year in Centralia, WA. His articles on cribbage are available on the ACC Web site.

Michael Schell is a pioneer of modern cribbage theory, which synthesizes traditional concepts of expert play with new computer-informed insights and analysis. He has published Cribbage Forum since 2000. Schell holds a Bronze Award, is a Washington State Champion (2001), and was one of the principal architects of ACC Internet Cribbage.

Peter Setian has played cribbage for over 20 years, and has been a member of the ACC for about 14 years. During that time, he has won seven major tournaments and earned his Life Master rating. He plays in about eight tournaments per year, including the ACC Tournament of Champions and the annual Grand National. He enjoys participation in Grass Roots Club #72.

HALSCRIB is widely regarded as the world's strongest computer cribbage player. Its opinion was solicited using a special analysis version of the program. Since HALSCRIB only speaks binary, its thoughts have been translated into English by Michael Schell and its creator, Hal Mueller, a retired mathematics professor and eight-time ACC tournament winner. For more information, see the HALSCRIB home page.